Business models
  • 2017: Apple continues to hold >90% of the profit of the smartphone industry (Dec 2016). Happened.
  • 2017: Apple becomes the number 1 watch maker in the world by revenue (Dec 2016). Tim Cook announced it on 2017-09-12 (September 2017)
  • 2018: Apple crosses the 1 trillion market capitalisation (Nov 2017). Apple crossed the $1t in market cap on 2018-08-02 (August 2018).
  • 2020: There is at least one worker digital union (syndicate) valued at 1b. These digital unions startups are online aggregators that tilt the bargaining power of individuals vs. big platforms. (Dec 2016). Update: in big platforms I include non-digital companies, it can be a big company. (Set 2017)
  • 2020: There is at least one consumer digital union (cooperative) valued at 1b. These digital unions startups are online aggregators that tilt the bargaining power of individuals vs. big platforms. (Dec 2016)
  • 2025: CV on the blockchain. A decentralised social network for CVs has been launched and attracted more than 10m users. Users are incentivised to join by awarding them tokens of the network. They also get more tokens if they remain on the network, potentially tiered by network size, age, or network value. Miners also get tokens. Tokens are used to access the CV data, via API or via the app. The more data of a person or persons you need to access, the more you pay. Users can block certain info, and maybe get less tokens awards. (Feb 2018)
  • 2025: Finally, your digital ID now stores passwords for most things, including websites, apps, services, banks, etc. You need only a handful (5), at most. Maybe it depends on a hardware device (Dec 2016)
  • 2025: Open-work on Open-source. At least one company worth >$1b opens their code and pays developers across the world by reputation of their commits within their open source software trunk, which can cover all or part of the company. Incentives exist for great contributors, paying them an on-going allowance for some months after their relevant contribution. At least 20% of dev budget is paid out this way. (Oct 2017)
  • 2030: Amazon, Facebook or Google's market value shows a downwards trend until 2030. The fact that their market value is very dependent on a dominant position will attract growing government oversight. Amazon is complex and produces little profit, which makes investment dependent on the market believing on continued growth and market domination - hard to maintain conditions. Google and Facebook make the majority of money from a single service (advertising), and the online ads industry can be changed overnight by governments action or tech disruption. (Dec 2017)